The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows a new national leader in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination. While enjoying an amazing surge, Mike Huckabee has earned support from 20% of Likely Republican Primary Voters nationwide. Three points back, at 17%, is Rudy Giuliani. That’s the lowest level of support ever recorded for Giuliani in the tracking poll and represents a seven-point decline over the past week. Huckabee has gained eight points during the same time frame.
Just as significant as the new leader is the amazingly competitive nature of the race. Five candidates are within ten points of the lead and all five could conceivably become the party’s eventual nominee. In addition to Huckabee and Giuliani, John McCain and Mitt Romney are at 13%, and Fred Thompson is at 10%. In what could become a major moment in the campaign, Romney will give a speech on faith and religion Thursday. Huckabee recently declined to comment on Romney’s faith but did say it was appropriate to discuss religion in a campaign setting.
Huckabee has also moved in front of Hillary Clinton in the state of Arkansas.
Polls recently released by other firms have recently shown Huckabee surging but Giuliani still retaining his lead. For example, a recent Gallup poll showed Giuliani leading Huckabee by nine percentage points. The difference between the two results is partly the result of timing as Rasmussen Reports provides new information more frequently than any other firm. On the dates of the Gallup survey, Rasmussen Reports showed Giuliani still leading Huckabee by three. Since the Gallup survey was completed, Huckabee has gained a net six points over Giuliani.
Additionally, Rasmussen Reports screens for Likely Primary voters while Gallup surveyed Adults. Neither approach is necessarily right or wrong, but Primary Voters tend to be more conservative than Republicans generally. As a result, a poll that screens for Likely Primary Voters is likely to show more support for Huckabee than a poll that measures the opinions of Republican and Republican leaning adults.
It remains unclear whether the current round of Huck-a-mania is nothing more than Mike Huckabee’s fifteen minutes of fame of if the former Arkansas Governor has a serious chance of winning the Republican nomination. But, there is no doubt that he has shaken up the race-- Huckabee is also a frontrunner in Iowa, essentially tied for second in New Hampshire, and has pulled to within a single percentage point of Hillary Clinton in a general election match-up.
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Good news from Texas.
Huckabee raises cash, likes odds of winning Texas' GOP primary
Host Gene Phillips says former Arkansas governor 'has a Texas-type message'
12:00 AM CST on Wednesday, December 19, 2007
By DAVE LEVINTHAL / The Dallas Morning News
dlevinthal@dallasnews.com
Presidential candidate Mike Huckabee said he likes his odds of winning Texas' Republican primary – odds bolstered by a lucrative fundraiser Tuesday night hosted by a highly successful, and litigious, Dallas real estate developer who was once tried and acquitted on federal racketeering charges.
"We have the momentum, and I'm hoping we can build on it. People here want conservative leadership," the former Arkansas governor said, after a two-hour speech and meet-and-greet at Gene Phillips' 13-acre Dallas estate.
"This is a pro-life, pro-Second Amendment, pro-traditional marriage state that believes in lower, not higher taxes. And I feel like if there's anyone in the race that feels a kinship with Texas – except in football – that'd be me."
Organizers announced at the end of the fundraiser that Mr. Huckabee generated more than $202,000 from the event, where standard tickets went for $2,300. Those in attendance included Irving Mayor Herbert Gears and several members of the Oklahoma Legislature.
The Texas primary is March 4.
The Dallas yield is yet another cash infusion for a candidate who even this fall was struggling to raise money while better-known GOP presidential contenders such as Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney wallowed in cash.
Last quarter, Mr. Huckabee raised just over $1 million, dwarfed by the sums Mr. Giuliani and Mr. Romney raked in. Even Ron Paul, the U.S. representative from Lake Jackson, who's in single digits in the GOP polls, far outpaced Mr. Huckabee's receipts.
But Mr. Huckabee's poll numbers have soared on the strength of a conservative message that's appealed especially to evangelical Christians.
On Tuesday night, he regaled the audience of more than 150 with tales of his transformation from a small-town boy whose father never thought he'd meet the state's governor to a man who became Arkansas' 44th governor.
Mr. Huckabee spoke at length about replacing the federal income tax with a consumption-based sales tax and empowering states to better tackle issues like education. But he didn't address immigration policy, abortion or gay marriage.
In an interview afterward, Mr. Huckabee eagerly defended his host, calling Mr. Phillips a wonderful man whom he's proud to count among his supporters.
In 2002, a federal jury acquitted Mr. Phillips on seven charges, including racketeering and wire fraud, stemming from allegations that he was illegally paying off union officials and mobsters.
This year, Mr. Phillips sued Google in federal court, alleging libel stemming from the search engine's placement of Web sites and articles about his past legal troubles. The suit has since been withdrawn by Mr. Phillips.
He also has found himself crosswise with Dallas City Hall.
Last year, Transcontinental Realty Investors authorized the bulldozing of the historic Missouri-Kansas-Texas Railroad depot, built in about 1925 in the West End. Mr. Phillips' American Realty Investors owns more than 80 percent of Transcontinental.
The city alleges in a case still pending that Transcontinental did not obtain proper permits and failed to secure permission from the city's Landmark Commission, which must authorize such demolitions.
Mr. Huckabee said he wasn't concerned about Mr. Phillips' legal dealings.
"Not at all. Of course not," Mr. Huckabee said. "He's a wonderful person, and he's been nothing but just terrific to me. He and his wife are just delightful people who've been just wonderful to us."
Mr. Phillips said his ideology aligns well with that of Mr. Huckabee, whose name he barely knew just two months ago.
"His generally conservative and Christian message interested me," Mr. Phillips said Tuesday.
"He's just come from out of nowhere, but people realized very quickly that he has a wonderful message, a presidential message. ... He has a Texas-type message."
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